Contingency planning begins now for the possible migration to 12-digit dialing

As the CRTC struggles with finding enough phone numbers to service Canadians’ needs, it must also determine how soon those numbers will exhaust entirely. Contingency plans are already being considered for the day when even 10-digit dialing will reach a saturation point in Canada’s largest cities. The expanded dialing code is already being introduced in Toronto, with Vancouver to follow (NL, Mar. 27/00; May 23/00). One of the options being considered is 12-digit dialing, although there is no consensus on when it would happen or whether it’s even the best approach. Considering the logistics and high costs of introducing a new numbering system, telcos would prefer that it be delayed as long as possible. At the same time, however, they do want a definite policy in place so that they can start preparing. What’s still unclear at this point is when large North American cities will start running out of 10-digit dialing codes. "The North American Numbering Plan Administrator (NANPA) has indicated that it could happen as early as 2007, 2008 but more likely around 2015," Brenda Stevens, the manager of number administration for the CRTC, explains to Network Letter."It could be as late as 2025. They’ll know more as time goes on and they get new forecasts from the carriers in North America. It’s a big question mark right now. Clearly we’re monitoring it closely but no one really knows what the likelihood of exhaust in the next decade is." Experts not sure when we’ll run out of numbers The Industry Numbering Committee (INC) is a body representing major tele-communications carriers in North America. It has been working since 1993 to resolve numbering issues. In July 1995, the INC set up a workshop to develop a proposal to expand the capacity of the North American Numbering Plan (NANP). The group laid out six possible solutions to the situation, but two appear to have taken precedence. They are expansion of the NXX prefixes or of the NPAs (numbering plan area or area code) to four digits, thus leading to 11-digit dialing; and increasing both the NXX and the NPA, resulting in dialing a dozen digits before completing a phone call. Neither the 11- nor 12-digit option is more popular. "There’s no real preference at this point or no real direction that’s been specified either by the FCC or by CRTC," Parke Davis, the president of the Canadian Numbering Administration Consortium Inc told Network Letter. "I think we’re still in the option stage. We don’t have to make a decision at this point yet." Davis agrees the issue of exhaustion is confusing. "There’s various views in the industry and in government as to when," he states. "Some time ago there was a prediction it might come as early as 2006, another five years, but most people had discounted that, indicating it would last until 2020." Two Canadian codes in peril Recently released data from Glenn Pilley of the Canadian Numbering Administration, a private body, suggests Stevens is correct when she postulates 2015 as the likely date for number exhaust. Driving the depletion is the ongoing need for numbers for wireline phones, wireless devices, fax machines, Internet connections and similar telecommunication systems. NANPA currently lists 72 NPAs on its jeopardized list. The only Canadian entries are 416 and 905, both Toronto-area designations. The most affected district is California, which has 21 NPAs in jeopardy. The area codes cover all parts of the state, involving cities like San Diego, Sacramento, Anaheim and Oakland. This contrasts with the Canadian situation where some jurisdictions are decades away from exhaust. Manitoba and Saskatchewan are unlikely to need second NPAs in the province in our life time. The prospect of 10-digit dialing is even less likely.

Contingency planning begins now for the possible migration to 12-digit dialing

News | February 26, 2001

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