Digital TV subscribers to top 3.6 million at year-end, Decima Publishing forecasts

The number of Canadians subscribing to digital television service will top 3.6 million by the end of 2002, with satellite TV continuing to hold the lion's share of the market, according to the latest digital TV subscriber forecasts by Decima Publishing Inc. Satellite's share of the digital TV market is expected to be 60 per cent at year-end, with cable holding 38 per cent and wireless cable two per cent. The forecasts are contained in the latest installment of Decima's series of quarterly market overview reports called The Digital Domain: Tracking the Growth and Development of the Canadian Digital TV Distribution Market. Vol. 1, Report 4 of The Digital Domain, released last week, contains actual subscriber results as of February/March 2002 and forecasts to calendar year-end 2002. Estimated year-end 2002 market share data by individual distributor contained in the Decima report shows that two companies - Bell ExpressVu LP and Shaw Communications Inc. - will continue to control three quarters of the digital TV market. Bell ExpressVu is forecast to have 36 per cent of all digital subscribers in Canada at Dec. 31, 2002, Shaw-owned Star Choice Communications Inc. will have 24 per cent, and Shaw Cablesystems will have 15 per cent. Following a record fourth quarter for subscriber additions in 2001 for several digital TV providers, typically slower growth was experienced in the period November/December 2001 to February/March 2002. The total number of digital TV subscribers in Canada rose 6 per cent to nearly three million in the first few months of 2002, according to Decima Publishing's research. This compares to overall growth of 13 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2001. Several companies experienced slower growth and some even saw digital subscriber losses following the end of initial free previews of new digital specialty channels, the report notes. Decima Publishing estimates that there are currently 3.1 million digital TV subscribers across the country. Overall, digital cable subscribers increased by 6 per cent to 1,053,930 in the period, slower than the 16 per cent growth in the previous three-month period - August/September 2001 to November/December 2001 (CCR, March 15/02). Satellite customers grew by 7 per cent to 1,871,058, compared to 12 per cent growth in the previous three-month period. Wireless cable subscribers decreased by 7 per cent to 66,000, compared to a decline of 4.7 per cent in the previous three-month period. The erosion in wireless cable customers is the result of Look Communications Inc.'s continued struggle to maintain its customer base. The report estimates that approximately 40 Canadian cable operators have deployed digital cable service to date ranging from Canada's largest multiple system operators (MSOs) to cable companies operating in small, rural communities across the country. Vol. 1, Report 4 profiles the digital cable offerings of 34 of those cablecos, Canada's two satellite operators, three wireless cablecos, and three telcos. The Digital Domain series provides the most comprehensive breakdown of the digital TV market in Canada, including exclusive glimpses into the numbers being posted by non-public companies. Vol. 1, Report 4 of The Digital Domain contains 170 pages of key digital TV market information, including subscriber statistics, market share data, digital penetration rates of cable operators, and digital TV subscriber forecasts. The report also details the package offerings of each of Canada's digital television providers, and provides concise summaries for each aspect of the competitive landscape including successful marketing/bundling strategies and which players are winning the battle for customers. Low digital box offers and free digital box giveaways are becoming commonplace to attract analog cable subscribers to higher marghin digital services, but these marketing strategies are expensive and are likely not sustainable. New digital specialty TV channels, time-shifted Canadian and American signals, out-of-market radio stations, video-on-demand, enhanced television, high-definition television programming, and personal video recorder technology are some of the services being deployed by digital TV providers to entice consumers to their digital service.

Digital TV subscribers to top 3.6 million at year-end, Decima Publishing forecasts

Broadcast | July 4, 2002

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